Assessment of drought over the past two millennia using near-shore sediment cores from a Canadian boreal lake     

Heather A. Haig  Melanie V. Kingsbury  Kathleen R. Laird  Peter R. Leavitt  Robyn Laing  Brian F. Cumming 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2013,50(2):175-190

Lack of long-term studies on drought in the boreal region of northwest Ontario limits our ability to assess the vulnerability of this region to climate change. We investigated changes in diatoms, scaled chrysophytes, and sedimentary pigments in two near-shore cores from Gall Lake to infer limnological and water-level changes over the last two millennia. The two coring locations, at modern water depths of 7.5 and 11.5 m, were selected to contrast inferences for past lake level based on distance from the modern water-depth boundary between predominantly benthic and planktonic diatom assemblages in surface sediments (6.0 m). Diatom-inferred depth inferences were more variable in the core from 7.5-m water depth, consistent with the hypothesis that the greatest changes occurred at water depths closest to the benthic:planktonic boundary. Both sites revealed a pronounced drought from ~AD 950 to 1300, synchronous with the medieval climate anomaly (MCA). This finding suggests a northeast expansion of the arid MCA into northwest Ontario, extending the known spatial extent of this megadrought. Scaled chrysophytes and sedimentary pigments suggest a recent increase in thermal stratification. Our findings indicate this region is more susceptible to changes in moisture than was previously suspected based on the instrumental record for the past century.  相似文献   

Ground Movement and Strains from Airphoto Measurements in Avonside Caused by 2010 Darfield Earthquake     

Serozhah Milashuk  William Crane 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2012,30(4):1045-1051

In this work ground failure following the 2010 Darfield earthquake in Canterbury, NZ was studied. Lateral spreading and horizontal ground strains were analyzed in an area near the Central Business District of Christchurch city. The Avon river runs through the middle of the study area and includes natural, filled and artificially cut stream bed stretches. Lateral displacement vectors from photogrammetric data were interpolated and used to produce ground strains. Large compressive and tensile strains were identified. Natural point bars were found to correlate closely with tensile strains. Natural stream bed (filled and existing) was found to closely correlate with compressive strains. Vector magnitude values of lateral displacements were found to correlate with water supply pipe repair rates (R² = 0.42). However, ground strains did not correlate with lateral displacements, water supply pipe repair rates or settlements from the photogrammetric data. Therefore, it may be concluded that ground strains have limited use in the indication of potential repair rates and do not directly predict settlement. However, ground strains were observed as useful in identifying paleo-geomorphology of the area in general and changing soil density profiles in particular.  相似文献   

The effect of global warming on mortality     

Jean Calleja-Agius  Kathleen England  Neville Calleja 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2012

There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C.This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution.Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.  相似文献   

Modeling Alternative Sequences of Events in Dynamic Geographic Domains     

Shane Hubbard  Kathleen Stewart Hornsby 《Transactions in GIS》2011,15(5):557-575

A model that emphasizes possible alternative sequences of events that occur over time is presented in this article. Representing alternative or branching events captures additional semantics unrealized by linear or non‐branching approaches. Two basic elements of branching, divergence and convergence are discussed. From these elements, many complex branching models can be built capturing a perspective of events that will take place in the future or have occurred in the past. This produces likely sequences of events that a user may compare and analyze using spatial or temporal criteria. The branching events model is especially useful for spatiotemporal decision support systems, as decision‐makers are able to identify alternative locations and times of events and, depending on the context, also identify regions of multiple possible events. A branching events viewer application is presented illustrating a case study based on a tornado response.  相似文献   

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laura Geselbracht  Kathleen Freeman  Eugene Kelly  Doria R. Gordon  Francis E. Putz 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):35-57

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.  相似文献   

Physical sedimentology experiments with sulfuric acid solutions: Implications for Mars?     

Kathleen C. Benison  Deidre LaClair  Jessica Walker   《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,270(3-4):330-337

Physical sedimentology experiments have shown that sulfuric acid solutions may have formed some surface features seen on Mars. Recent data returned from Mars show the presence of jarosite, sulfate salts, hematite, phyllosilicates, and opaline silica, all of which precipitate from some terrestrial sulfuric acid solutions. There is a plethora of geochemical, mineralogical, and sedimentological data indicative of past sulfuric acid systems on Mars, but there has never been a comprehensive study published regarding sulfuric acid as a physical sedimentological agent. In the laboratory, we ran liquids of various compositions over sediments in order to test how these liquids entrain, transport, and deposit sediments. Pure water and concentrated sulfuric acid solutions produced the same general features, such as channels, gullies, and alluvial fans. However, sulfuric acid solutions yielded some distinct sedimentary features not produced by pure water runs. These features, narrow, deeply incised channels of consistent widths, rounded discrete fans, and air bubble “craters”, are similar to some Martian landscape features. These experimental results indicate that acid solutions should be considered a possible sedimentological agent on Mars.  相似文献   

Sampling Strategies for Estimation of Parameters Related to Ground Water Quality     

by Pamela E. Crane  Stephen E. Silliman 《Ground water》2009,47(5):699-708

Multiple theoretical sampling designs are studied to determine whether sampling designs can be identified that will provide for characterization of ground water quality in rural regions of developing nations. Sampling design in this work includes assessing sampling frequency, analytical methods, length of sampling period, and requirements of sampling personnel. The results answer a set of questions regarding whether using innovative sampling designs can allow hydrogeologists to take advantage of a range of characterization technologies, sampling strategies, and available personnel to develop high-value, water-quality data sets. Monte Carlo studies are used to assess different sampling strategies in the estimation of three parameters related to a hypothetical chemical observed in a ground water well: mean concentration (MeanC), maximum concentration (MaxC), and total mass load (TML). Five different scenarios are simulated. These scenarios are then subsampled using multiple simulated sampling instruments, time periods (ranging from 1 to 10 years), and sampling frequencies (ranging from weekly to semiannually to parameter dependent). Results are analyzed via the statistics of the resulting estimates, including mean square error, bias, bias squared, and precision. Results suggest that developing a sampling strategy based on what may be considered lower quality instruments can represent a powerful field research approach for estimating select parameters when applied at high frequency. This result suggests the potential utility of using a combination of lower quality instrument and local populations to obtain high frequency data sets in regions where regular monitoring by technicians is not practical.  相似文献   

Volcanic tsunamis and prehistoric cultural transitions in Cook Inlet,Alaska     

James Begét  Cynthia Gardner  Kathleen Davis 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

The 1883 eruption of Augustine Volcano produced a tsunami when a debris avalanche traveled into the waters of Cook Inlet. Older debris avalanches and coeval paleotsunami deposits from sites around Cook Inlet record several older volcanic tsunamis. A debris avalanche into the sea on the west side of Augustine Island ca. 450 years ago produced a wave that affected areas 17 m above high tide on Augustine Island. A large volcanic tsunami was generated by a debris avalanche on the east side of Augustine Island ca. 1600 yr BP, and affected areas more than 7 m above high tide at distances of 80 km from the volcano on the Kenai Peninsula. A tsunami deposit dated to ca. 3600 yr BP is tentatively correlated with a southward directed collapse of the summit of Redoubt Volcano, although little is known about the magnitude of the tsunami. The 1600 yr BP tsunami from Augustine Volcano occurred about the same time as the collapse of the well-developed Kachemak culture in the southern Cook Inlet area, suggesting a link between volcanic tsunamis and prehistoric cultural changes in this region of Alaska.  相似文献   

Guest Editorial: Selected Papers from the Fourth International Conference on Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4)     

Keith Clarke  Brad Parks  & Michael Crane 《Transactions in GIS》2000,4(3):177-180

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Photonic dating of prehistoric irrigation canals at Phoenix,Arizona, U.S.A.*     

Glenn W. Berger  T. Kathleen Henderson  D. Banerjee  Fred L. Nials 《Geoarchaeology》2004,19(1):1-19

A number of archeological features, including in‐filled irrigation canals of uncertain prehistoric age, occur within the Holocene floodplain of the Salt River at Phoenix, Arizona. In the first attempt to date irrigation‐canal sediments using luminescence methods, we obtained age estimates of 1640 ± 190 yr B.P. (1σ) (multi‐aliquot or MA) and 1621 ± 95 yr B.P. (post‐IR single‐aliquot‐regenerative‐dose or SAR) for a single sample from the base of the oldest canal‐infilling deposits (all IR‐PSL ages reported in this article are in calendar years before A.D. 2001). For the remaining canal samples, weighted mean luminescence ages of 819 ± 45 yr (MA) and 826 ± 32 yr (post‐IR SAR) were obtained. Thus from photonic dating we can resolve the first and last phases of canal use at this Phoenix site: initiation at ca. 1600 years ago and final use at ca. 800 years ago. These results demonstrate the power of SAR luminescence sediment dating to enhance our understanding of prehistoric irrigation‐canal development and usage here and elsewhere in the world. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献